Snowzilla Communication Breakdown

January 27, 2016 David Lublin

Thanks to Adam Pagnucco for this guest post:

Snowzilla has turned out to be a historic storm. Every local jurisdiction from the City of Baltimore to Northern Virginia has struggled to recover from it, and Montgomery County is no exception. While MoCo residents complain about the pace of snow removal, with and without justification, there is no evidence that the county has performed worse than comparable jurisdictions. But one area in which it has fallen short is communicating with its residents.

Most residents have one question on their minds: when can I escape from my neighborhood? Let’s be fair: during a mega-event like Snowzilla, that’s a really hard question to answer. The county is coordinating a large fleet of employees and contractors, as well as working with other agencies like the state, Metro, Park and Planning and MCPS. A great deal of the equipment being used is not GPS-enabled. The most honest answer is also the least satisfactory: we don’t know.

The county chose to rely on its snow removal map to deal with resident questions. The county’s Department of Transportation repeatedly directed residents to the map on Twitter.

The problem is that the map wasn’t showing any useful information. Below is an image of the map as of Tuesday, January 26. The map shows that every county street in Glenmont, Wheaton and unincorporated Kensington was “in progress.” It showed similar information all over the county. That’s physically impossible. The county doesn’t have enough equipment to be everywhere at once and residents know that.

Faced with a non-functioning map, residents overwhelmed MC 311. Some called only to hear a recording. Even if they got through, no answers were available. Again, the county simply didn’t know when individual neighborhoods would be cleared, even though they claimed the map would say so.

Meanwhile, municipalities appeared to be doing a better job. Consider the Facebook posts of Gaithersburg Mayor Jud Ashman. On Saturday, January 23, the Mayor reported that all city streets had received a first pass. He then reported that all streets would receive a second pass the following morning. This is a period during which county plows had not reached neighborhood streets at all. Residents of unincorporated areas, for which the county has responsibility, have friends in municipalities and were aware of their performance. This only increased their frustrations.

Council Member Hans Riemer (my former employer) nailed it in a post on Facebook. Noting his work on securing funding for an upgraded snow map and planning for pedestrian mobility during snow storms, he wrote: “Better communications technology would save our residents a lot of anxiety during snow events, and enable them to more adequately plan for their work and family lives. If technology answered more questions, it would also take pressure off of our 311 call center, which has been completely overwhelmed by the volume of calls they’ve received during this storm.” And he’s absolutely right.

Snowzilla was a gigantic storm and public employees across the region deserve tremendous credit for their recovery efforts. But MoCo had a communication breakdown that made a stressful event worse. Here’s hoping that Council Member Riemer and his colleagues can help the county prepare to do better next time.

education

MSEA Decries Hogan’s Effort to Shift Public Dollars to Private Schools

January 27, 2016 David Lublin

The following is from MSEA’s press release:

MSEA Statement on Gov. Hogan’s 2016 Education Proposals

Proposed BOAST Program Would Divert Taxpayer Dollars From Public Schools to Private Schools

Annapolis, Maryland — This morning, Gov. Hogan’s office released details on his 2016 proposals for education initiatives, including the same BOAST legislation he unsuccessfully introduced last year. Betty Weller, president of the Maryland State Education Association, made the following statement:

“If Gov. Hogan’s goal is to make sure every student has the opportunity to succeed, BOAST (now called the Maryland Education Credit by private school advocates) should have been the last option on his list. It’s a voucher-like scheme designed to move tens of millions of taxpayer dollars from public schools into private schools. Not only does it create new tax breaks for corporations, it would only help students who can already afford to attend private school. It would do nothing for low-income students except make it harder to fund their public schools.

“BOAST is opposed by nearly 60% of Maryland voters—including a plurality of Republicans—at a time when Marylanders believe their public schools need more funding, not less. Support for private school education is a distraction from the larger education issues at hand, like reducing standardized testing, closing opportunity gaps, and increasing public school funding.

“Educators look forward to working with legislators to reject this proposal—and a similar $5 million giveaway proposed in the governor’s budget—and advance effective solutions that truly improve our public schools.”

Eighth Congressional District

How a Trone Race Could Help Matthews

January 27, 2016 David Lublin

The following is a guest post by Adam Pagnucco:

As first reported by David Lublin and followed by Bethesda Magazine and the Washington Post, Total Wine Co-Founder David Trone is considering a run in the Eighth Congressional District. The conventional wisdom seems to be that a Trone candidacy would hurt Kathleen Matthews. Bethesda Magazine’s Lou Peck writes:

At first blush, it would appear that a Trone candidacy could be a political blow to Matthews, who—despite a lack of prior political involvement in the 8th District—has become a top-tier candidate thanks to a fundraising base that has drawn big-name contributors from Washington well as from several other major cities across the country. (Among the recent donors to Matthews: Robert Trone, also a Potomac resident, who gave her the maximum $2,700 contribution last June.)

While Matthews has sought to emphasize her prior background as a local TV news reporter and anchor, her tenure at Marriott over the past decade has given her a base of business backing that Trone could cut into. And Trone’s ability to self-fund a campaign could neutralize Matthews’ large campaign warchest, accumulated since last summer thanks to her network of contacts and those of her husband, MSNBC talk show host Chris Matthews.

The Post’s Bill Turque writes:

Should Trone decide to run, it would not be good news for Matthews, who is courting the kind of business community support that Trone could also claim. Trone would also likely diminish Matthews’s fundraising advantage (more than $1 million through Sept. 30), which she has accumulated through the network of corporate and political contacts developed in tandem with her husband Chris Matthews, host of MSNBC’s “Hardball.”

Lou Peck and Bill Turque are both great reporters, but I disagree with the opinions of their sources. If Trone gets in, it could actually help Matthews win the race. Here’s why.

1. The business community has money, but they don’t have a lot of loyal voters – especially in Montgomery County Democratic primaries. My hunch is that Matthews already has raised enough money to put on a competitive campaign. We will find out in a few days when the end-of-year finance reports come in. And her nationwide Democratic fundraising network, bolstered by her famous and well-connected husband, goes far outside the business community. As for Trone, he doesn’t need to compete with Matthews for money because he can self-finance.

2. If Trone gets in, that means Matthews would be the only woman running a competitive campaign against three men–Trone, Sen. Jamie Raskin and Del. Kumar Barve. Del. Ana Sol Gutierrez has so far not raised enough money to be a top-tier contender. (I am sorry for saying that, Ana!) There are many examples in recent MoCo political history of female candidates doing well against men, either one-on-one or facing groups of men. They include:

Cheryl Kagan, 2014: Kagan, a former Delegate, was significantly outspent by incumbent Delegate Lou Simmons in the open seat primary for the District 17 Senate seat. Kagan won by ten points.

Ariana Kelly, 2010: Kelly was the only female challenger in a jam-packed primary for an open District 16 Delegate seat. Fellow challenger Kyle Lierman spent almost twice as much as Kelly, but she picked up the Apple Ballot and won a tight contest.

Ariana Kelly, 2014: Challengers Marc Korman and Hrant Jamgochian each spent significantly more than Kelly as they battled it out for an open seat. Kelly was the only woman who ran a viable campaign and she finished first in the primary by nearly a thousand votes.

Sheila Hixson, 2014: The long-time incumbent faced a scrum of challengers for two open Delegate seats, one of whom self-financed over $400,000. But Hixson, the only female candidate, smoked everyone and had a margin of more than 2,000 votes over the second-place finisher.

Nancy Floreen, 2010 and 2014: In 2010, Floreen competed with two other top-tier female candidates, fellow incumbent Duchy Trachtenberg and Becky Wagner, and finished third in the council at-large primary. In 2014, Floreen was the only female at-large incumbent and had just one viable female challenger, Beth Daly. This time Floreen finished second, her best result ever.

Yes, there are mitigating circumstances in all of the above races and women don’t always win. In 2014, female challengers took on popular male incumbents in Council District 1 and Senate District 18 and lost badly. But there is definitely a pattern here for open seats and multiple seat races, because:

3. Women are majorities of Democratic voters, no matter how you slice the data. Below are extracts from Montgomery County’s voter registration file as of January 2015. First, let’s look at MoCo Democratic voters in gubernatorial elections.

Next, let’s look at MoCo Democratic voters in presidential elections.

Women are majorities in every single category of MoCo Democrats. When just one woman is running a competitive campaign against two or three competitive men, that matters. It also matters that Hillary Clinton is on the ballot and the possible departure of Donna Edwards from Congress could create an all-male federal delegation from Maryland.

All of these things bode well for Kathleen Matthews. If I were in her camp, I would say, “Mister Trone, welcome to the race.”

Eighth Congressional District

Will David Trone Take the Plunge?

January 26, 2016 David Lublin

Washington Post Reporter Bill Turque has confirmed that David Trone is “mulling” a bid for Congress. The news that Trone had a poll in the field testing messages about himself and two opponents was “first reported” here at the Seventh State.

Turque’s report concurs with my assessment that a Trone run “might cut more” into Kathleen Matthews’ support:

Should Trone decide to run, it would not be good news for Matthews, who is courting the kind of business community support that Trone could also claim. Trone would also likely diminish Matthews’ fundraising advantage (more than $1 million through Sept. 30), which she has accumulated through the network of corporate and political contacts developed in tandem with her husband Chris Matthews, host of MSNBC’s “Hardball.”

Indeed, several think Trone is considering the plunge precisely because of concerns regarding Matthews:

Governor, taxes

Hogan Throws Commerce Secretary Under the Bus

January 26, 2016 David Lublin

No longer all smiles between Governor Larry Hogan (center) and Secretary of Commerce Michael Gill (right)

From the Daily Record:

A proposal to create a tax incentive for manufacturers to relocate to Maryland represents a change of course for at least some in Gov. Larry Hogan’s administration.

The governor’s announcement earlier this month reverses a position expressed less than a year ago when Michael Gill, Hogan’s recently appointed secretary of what is now the state Department of Commerce, penned a letter urging lawmakers to focus on existing manufacturing in the state.

But late Friday, after The Daily Record posted online a story referencing Gill’s letter, a Hogan spokesman said the governor was unaware of the letter and that it was not authorized.

“It does not represent the views of the governor,” said Douglass Mayer. “The governor has been a long-time supporter of Governor [Andrew] Cuomo’s effort and program in New York.”

In the words of Cool Hand Luke, “what we’ve got here is a failure to communicate.”

I hope to have more assessment of this tax proposal shortly and look forward to hearing from the Governor what he plans to cut in the budget to fund this proposal. Sen. Roger Manno (D-19) had already planned to introduce a similar idea this session.

Eighth Congressional District

Select Trone Family Donations

January 24, 2016 David Lublin

Furman’s President presents a symbolic key to the new Trone Student Center to David, June, and Robert Trone who donated $3.5 million

David Trone’s decision to conduct a poll made it known unintentionally that he is thinking about becoming a late entry into the race for the Democratic nomination in the Eighth District. Trone is 60, lives in Potomac. He has voted in every election since 2006 except for the 2010 and 2010 primaries.

Along with his younger brother, Robert, he owns Total Wine, a major retail outlet for alcoholic beverages based in Montgomery County. This successful chain known for its excellent prices operates stores in a variety of states but cannot open one in Montgomery due to limitations placed by the State and the County liquor monopoly.

The Trone family is quite active in giving money to a range of causes and politicians, including many beyond those detailed here. David Trone recently donated $15 million to the ACLU to reduce the prison population and help ex-convicts get jobs:

David Trone, of Potomac, cited Total Wine’s support of the “ban the box” movement — which seeks removal of the criminal-record check box from job applications — as a factor in his gift and an example of what private-sector partners can accomplish.

“Yes, people make mistakes,” he said. “But if they paid the price and now want to build a better life, why should that mistake have to carry with them the rest of their lives?”

Previously, David Trone and his wife, June, have donated over $1 million to the ACLU. June has also contributed to Republicans, including Mitt Romney and the RNC.

Interestingly, on June 9th of last year, Robert Trone made a $2,700 contribution to Kathleen Matthews, who is already running hard for the Democratic nomination in the Eighth.

Peter Franchot

Adam Pagnucco: Outside the Statehouse, Franchot is King

January 23, 2016 David Lublin

The following is a guest post by Adam Pagnucco:

Senate President Mike Miller and Comptroller Peter Franchot have renewed their decade-long feud, to the delight of journalists, bloggers and pundits alike. Whether it’s about slots, tax collection issues, Baltimore County public school air conditioners or just the joy of a good barroom brawl, the Miller-Franchot war sometimes abates but never ends. Speculation pops up every couple of years that the Senate President will find a challenger to take the Comptroller out. After all, Miller is arguably the most powerful non-Governor in Maryland history and the statehouse is his domain. But outside the statehouse, Franchot is King.

Why do I say that? Consider the following.

1. Statewide Results

Below are the vote totals and percentages of major party candidates for Governor, Comptroller and Attorney General for the last two general elections. (Attorney General Doug Gansler, who had no opponent in 2010, is omitted.) Franchot’s results are the best in the field. In fact, to find statewide politicians who regularly matched or exceeded his margins, you would have to go back more than a decade to the days of William Donald Schaefer, Louie Goldstein and Joe Curran.

2. County Results

Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown was the ultimate creation of the state Democratic establishment. And Franchot? Well… let’s just say he’s not. Below is a comparison of the votes obtained by the two in every county in the 2014 general election. Franchot received more votes than Brown in every local jurisdiction, including Brown’s home base of Prince George’s. In the big three liberal jurisdictions (Montgomery, Baltimore City and Prince George’s), the vote totals for Brown and Franchot were similar, suggesting that loyal Democrats supported both of them. Franchot’s edge came from the rest of the state. He received at least 50% more votes than Brown in 15 of 24 counties, including the critical swing jurisdictions of Baltimore County and Anne Arundel. Brown carried just four jurisdictions against Larry Hogan – Prince George’s, Baltimore City, Montgomery and Charles. Franchot carried all of them in the general election, plus Anne Arundel, Baltimore County, Dorchester, Howard, Kent and Talbot. Tell me again why Franchot should fear the establishment?

3. Legislative Districts and Sub-District Results

The State Board of Elections has data on the performance of Franchot, Brown and Hogan for every one of Maryland’s 67 legislative districts and sub-districts. (The state has 47 Senate districts but many of them are carved up into smaller sub-districts for Delegates.) This further illuminates the electoral dominance of Franchot over Brown.

Franchot received more votes than Brown in 63 of the 67 districts. All four in which Brown did better were in Prince George’s. Franchot received more votes than either Brown OR Hogan in 32 districts – nearly half of them. Franchot’s occasional deviations from progressive orthodoxy didn’t hurt him in liberal Montgomery or Baltimore City, as he out-polled Brown in every district either entirely or partially within their boundaries.

In the following nine districts, Franchot received more than twice as many votes as Brown.

These districts go from moderately red to deep red. They are represented by a combined 8 Republican Senators, 21 Republican Delegates and 1 Democratic Senator – Baltimore County’s renegade blue dog, Jim Brochin. In many of these places, liberal Democrats are considered alien life forms. But Franchot has a following here.

Perhaps the most interesting of these districts is Dundalk-based District 6. Dundalk is a fabled ancestral home of white, blue-collar, unionized Democrats, but it has been trending to the GOP. In 2014, Hogan defeated Brown here with 76% of the vote. Democratic Delegate John Olszewski Jr. lost the Senate race to unknown Republican Johnny Ray Salling, who raised just $15,429. The district’s three Delegate seats flipped from all Democratic to all Republican – and it wasn’t close. A Republican succeeded Olszewski’s father in Dundalk’s County Council seat with 62% of the vote. Baltimore County Executive Kevin Kamenetz lost the fifteen Dundalk precincts to an obscure, underfinanced Republican by a 59-41% margin. Attorney General Brian Frosh lost to a no-name Republican here by 53-41%. But Franchot won the district 52-48.

I know what you’re thinking: Franchot had a weak opponent. Sure. But 2014 was a year in which seemingly weak Republicans had great success. They knocked out numerous Democratic incumbents, including prominent ones like Olszewski, Senator Roy Dyson, Delegates John Bohanan, David Rudolph and Norm Conway, and Wicomico County Executive Rick Pollitt. They came close to defeating Brochin and Senator Ron Young. The ultimate no-name Republican was Larry Hogan, a man who had never served in public office, had no starting name recognition and had to draw on public financing to compete with the MUCH better funded Anthony Brown. Remember when Brown referred to the general election as “a little bit of a mole hill?” But Hogan won in the best year in recent memory for “weak” Republicans. Amid all this tumult, Franchot increased his win margin in the general election by two points over 2010.

Here is the key question: could it be that Franchot’s socially liberal, fiscally moderate stance combines the best of Hogan and Brown and has made him Maryland’s most popular state-level Democrat? Maryland voters approved gay marriage and the Dream Act in 2012, and according to a recent Washington Post poll, support many liberal priorities. But they elected an openly anti-tax Governor and, according to the above poll, rank the economy and taxes as their second and third issue priorities. (Education is number one.) This mix of liberalism and moderation fits Franchot’s issue profile better than any other prominent Maryland politician.

Democrats should ponder all of this as they prepare to campaign against Hogan in 2018.

District 14

MCDCC Taps Zucker for Senate

January 22, 2016 David Lublin

Craig Zucker

The Montgomery County Democratic Central Committee (MCDCC) voted 25-2-1 to nominate Del. Craig Zucker to fill the vacancy caused by the retirement of Sen. Karen Montgomery. Central Committee Members Venattia Vann and Loretta Garcia voted instead for former Del. Herman Taylor. MCDCC Vice Chair Arthur Edmunds, who lives in District 14, abstained.

Once Gov. Larry Hogan formally appoints Zucker, MCDCC will once again have to fill a vacancy, this time in the House of Delegates. The current delegation is supporting Central Committee Member Pam Queen for that spot. Herman Taylor left open the possibility of seeking the seat when I spoke to him prior Zucker’s appointment.

Craig Zucker may well become the first person ever to vote to override the Governor’s veto in both chambers of the General Assembly. Earlier this week, he joined with the House majority to overturn the veto of the bill to restore the voting rights of ex-felons. The Senate has delayed the override vote until after the Governor fills the District 14 vacancy. Of course, all of this is perfectly legal and ethical but will make for an interesting bit of political history.

Congratulations to Craig Zucker. He already represents the same people in the House of Delegates so his set of constituents will remain the same. Former Del. Herman Taylor may not have won support from MCDCC but merits thanks for putting himself forward as well as his past work in the House of Delegates.

Eighth Congressional District

Game of Trone? David Trone Tests Waters in Eighth District

January 22, 2016 David Lublin

David Trone

David Trone of Total Wine is thinking about becoming a late entry into the Eighth Congressional District Democratic primary. Trone has never held or run for elective office previously but is wealthy and could self finance a campaign.

Trone is currently conducting a poll that tests general opinions about candidates as well as the impact of messages regarding Kathleen Matthews and Jamie Raskin. So what is Trone’s game?

Messages Tested about Trone

The positive messages tested about Trone include information that he has never been involved in politics, grew up on a farm and then grew a family business, gave millions to liberal causes, and will self-fund rather than take money from special interests.

Trone’s nascent campaign also tested concerns regarding messages that he has been involved in numerous business and private lawsuits, given money to politicians who could affect his business, and failed to vote several times. Kind of Trone to do the opposition research for his potential opponents.

Messages Tested about Matthews and Raskin

The negative messages tested about Kathleen Matthews are that she said she didn’t know anything about business and was just a PR person for Marriott. Additionally, the poll mentioned that she made the maximum allowed contribution to Missouri Sen. Blunt, who is very anti-choice and tried to remove birth control from Obamacare.

The poll looked at the effect of telling voters that Jamie Raskin once represented Ross Perot and defended Ralph Nader’s participation in the 2000 presidential debate. Additionally, Raskin was characterized as an Annapolis insider endorsed by Mike Miller and the Annapolis establishment.

Analysis

It’s very late to get into the game and build a campaign organization but Trone certainly has the money to conduct a good media campaign. I imagine Trone could also hire a bunch of people to help with the ground campaign but hired door knockers and phone callers are just never nearly as good as volunteers.

Trone appears to want to present himself as a savvy business outsider–the same appeal as Donald Trump only presumably without the outrageous racist baggage. Matthews is currently seen as the candidate with stronger business ties, so his entry might cut more into her potential support.

None of the potential attacks strike me as particularly effective. The attack on Matthews’ business skills strikes me as one that provides her with a major opportunity to come out swinging and plays to her well-honed media skills. I suspect it would rebound on Trone. Why a candidate who has made many campaign donations would want to highlight a single one by Matthews is also a bit of a mystery.

The attack on Raskin for defending debate participation is dated and arcane. Though Mike Miller has been Senate President since the time of James Monroe, I suspect few voters are truly aware of the powers he wields. Among Democrats, the Annapolis establishment hardly inspires terror in any case.

Remember that many Eighth District voters work in Washington and live inside the Beltway, so these attacks may just not resonate here. If this is the worst Trone can conjure up, both Matthews and Raskin have little to fear.

I imagine Trone hopes to be another John Delaney who comes in and sweeps more established candidates aside. The problem is that Matthews is not a long-time politician and Raskin has always run as a progressive change candidate. Kumar Barve and Ana Sol Gutiérrez have ties to voters and their own forms of outsider appeals.

Trone’s money nevertheless gives him the potential to shake up the race. If nothing else, his entry would highlight the issue of liquor control in Montgomery County. Total Wine is based in Montgomery County but cannot open one of its stores here.

Eighth Congressional District

Matthews Donated $1000 to Franchot One Day after Endorsement

January 22, 2016 David Lublin

Matthews Donates $1000 to Franchot One Day after Endorsement

Definitely nothing illegal but the optics are not good.

On January 11, Eighth Congressional District Candidate Kathleen Matthews announced support from Comptroller Peter Franchot (see below). The very next day she donated $1000 to Friends of Peter Franchot–the Comptroller’s campaign account (see above).

Obviously, the timing looks bad. It just doesn’t look good to donate $1000 the day after receiving a big endorsement. It’s also very strange because Matthews needs every dollar she can raise for her congressional Democratic primary in April. Franchot doesn’t face another election until 2018.

The donation turns a major endorsement that, as Adam Pagnucco pointed out, Matthews should have touted more into one with an awkward appearance that she should avoid. A surprising outcome all around from a very media-savvy candidate.

Announcement of Franchot’s Endorsement of Matthews

1. Statewide Results

2. County Results

3. Legislative Districts and Sub-District Results

Messages Tested about Trone

Messages Tested about Matthews and Raskin

Analysis

Maryland Politics Watch