A guest blog by Adam Pagnucco.
It’s time to dig deeper on geography. Below are election day results for every state legislative district overlapping with Congressional District 8.
Of the twelve legislative districts sharing precincts with CD8, David Trone won nine of them. Predictably, he won the five legislative districts in Carroll and Frederick Counties, and he got majorities in three of them. He also won the precincts in Districts 14, 15, 17 and 19. Senator Jamie Raskin won the precincts in Districts 16, 18 and 20, but those three accounted for 58% of election day votes. No other candidates won any legislative districts.
A note about District 20, Raskin’s home base. He received 52% of its votes, which was a lower percentage than Trone received in three northern legislative districts. Seventy-four percent of Raskin’s election day votes came from outside District 20, meaning that he succeeded in diversifying his geographic base – primarily to other precincts inside the Beltway. Raskin received more votes from District 16 than from District 20.
Here are the same results for county districts.
Again, Trone won every county district in Carroll and Frederick. But he also won the precincts in Montgomery County Council Districts 2, 3 and 4. Raskin won the precincts in Montgomery County Council Districts 1 and 5, and those two districts accounted for 54% of election day votes.
Here are the results for towns in Carroll and Frederick Counties.
Trone got a clean sweep here with one exception: in one precinct in Knoxville (Frederick County), one vote was cast and it went to Delegate Ana Sol Gutierrez. In every other case, the rank order was Trone first, Matthews second and Raskin third.
Now here are the results for towns in Montgomery County. Wheaton is defined as Zip Code 20902. Glenmont/Norbeck is defined as Zip Code 20906 except for Leisure World, which is separated out. Silver Spring (East County) is defined as Silver Spring precincts not in Zip Codes 20902 or 20906 and located outside the Beltway.
These results are much more diverse. Of the fifteen towns in Montgomery, Raskin won eight: Bethesda, Cabin John, Chevy Chase, Kensington, Silver Spring (East County), Silver Spring (Inside the Beltway), Takoma Park and Wheaton. No other candidate won a town inside the Beltway. Kathleen Matthews won Leisure World and Derwood, which had just one precinct. Trone won Damascus, Gaithersburg, Glenmont/Norbeck, Potomac and Rockville. Delegate Ana Sol Gutierrez finished second in Glenmont/Norbeck, an area with a substantial Latino population. The local data in Montgomery supports the narrative that Raskin’s victory was supported primarily by Inside the Beltway voters, and he rounded up enough votes from other places to prevent either Trone or Matthews from breaking through.
We will look at precinct demographics in Part Three.