A guest blog by Adam Pagnucco.
It has been roughly three weeks since Maryland’s primary election on April 26 and most of the results are in. All jurisdictions have reported returns from early voting, election day, absentee ballots and provisional ballots and unofficial precinct-level data files have been released. While the City of Baltimore’s results have some problems, they are not relevant to Congressional District 8. The time for a data crunch has arrived.
First, let’s examine the overall results.
Senator Jamie Raskin was the leader in early votes, election day votes and absentee and provisional ballots, but his leads were of different magnitudes. Raskin won early votes by 16.1 points, a far larger margin than his wins in absentee and provisional votes (7 points), total votes (6.5 points) and election day votes (3.5 points). As we proceed to analyze precinct votes on election day, let’s recognize that they underrate Raskin’s strength relative to the total vote count.
Here are total votes and election day votes by county for the top six candidates.
David Trone won an absolute majority of both total votes and election day votes in Carroll and Frederick Counties, but they comprised about a fifth of the electorate. Raskin won Montgomery County by 13.7% in total votes and 12.3% on election day. Kathleen Matthews placed second in all three counties.
This partially obscures the story of geography at a macro level. Consider the following three areas: precincts inside the Beltway, precincts outside the Beltway and still in Montgomery, and Carroll and Frederick together.
Raskin won the Inside the Beltway precincts by 23.7% over Matthews, and since these are just election day votes, that probably understates his margin. But in the Outside the Beltway Montgomery precincts, Raskin and Trone were basically tied while Trone won the northern counties handily. Interestingly, more Montgomery County votes came from outside the Beltway than inside, but because Raskin had such huge support from inside precincts, he was able to withstand his opponents’ performance in other areas.
We will have a finer cut on geography in Part Two.